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MR&H in conversation with Thanos Papasavvas, CFA.
Thanos Papasavvas is Founder & CIO of ABP Invest, established in 2015 to provide strategic outlook and research on markets, geopolitics, economics and FX.
This comment gives the views of the contributor at the time of publication. This communication is meant to be read only by professional investors, professional financial advisers and, at their exclusive discretion, their clients. It is not to be generally distributed to the public.
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Specialised hotel real estate investors are looking for assets they can add value to and in turn sell on to more institutional long-term capital – do you think the Southern European markets offer this type of value and long-term opportunity?
We expect a supportive macroeconomic environment albeit amidst rising social and political change.
The economic inequality in the developed world triggered by the global financial crisis through ample liquidity for investments, technological advancements and globalisation accentuated income inequality and led to a rise in populism and nationalism. Globalisation has not benefitted everyone.
Both of these social phenomena tend to become more prevalent in periods of economic weakness and stagnation; hence policy makers and politicians will be attuned to keeping macro prudential policies supportive of economic growth and development, both from a fiscal and monetary perspective.
Hence, interest rates are expected to remain low and accommodative in
gradual quantitative tightening. At the same time, we should expect to see an expansionary fiscal policy with rise in wages and investments across a number of sectors and industries.
This should be positive for real assets in
However,
The Greek Foreign and Direct Investment inflows (Chart-1) for the decade to 2018 shows the significant reliance on
Chart-1: Net FDI Inflows in
Source:
As well as being part of the BRI,
More specifically, I expect
Chart-2: EU top trading partners (based on trade values)
Source: Eurostat
Foreign investors should be optimistic, but not complacent.
In accordance with the Greek constitution the general elections have to take place on or before Sunday 20th October. My expectation is that Tsipras will call elections for mid- September, so as to capture the tailwinds of yet another record-breaking summer of tourism in
The margin between the incumbent SYRIZA party and the opposition right-of-centre ND party led by Mitsotakis, has remained stable at approximately 10% for some time (see Chart-3 below) in favour of ND. The margin had been wider pre 2018 but as the economy stabilized and
Chart-3: Poll of polls for
Source: Politico, https://pollofpolls.eu/map/europe-national
Why should investors be optimistic? The existential issue of Grexit is behind us. The macroprudential policies put in place are in line with orthodox economic thought, albeit still quite stringent so as to meet agreed targets. Growth is expected to range just above 2%, with improved market sentiment as evidenced by the successful bond issuance and 10yr yields at 3.30%. However, I do not expect all smooth sailing, especially with a potential change in government which will raise political and social unrest, at least temporarily.
Why should investors not be complacent? As with the experience of Tony Blair in the
What do you think will be the impact of the rise of the far right in
Populism and nationalism will be with us for some time as income inequalities have widened in the developed Western world. The situation in
Chart-4: Exports to
Source: Eurostat, FT @valentinaromei
Last but not least,
Chart-5: Chinese investment and construction into
Source: American Enterprise Institute, FT
What’s the future of the golden visa policies in Southern Europe?
As the European economies stabilise the reliance on this channel of revenue will reduce, particularly if the social and political shifts become more conservative. Perhaps the barrier will rise so as to contain absolute numbers and yet retain potential revenue and investment opportunities.
What impact would a changing government in
The latest local elections in March were supposed to be the last ones until the general elections in 2023. This could have provided a unique opportunity for the current Erdogan administration to address imbalances and turn the economy round so as to attract fresh investments, especially given the valuation of the currency.
As well as raising fresh FDI flows, he could have curtailed the momentum built by opposition CHP as seen with the recent local election wins in
6
This comment gives the views of the contributor at the time of publication. This communication is meant to be read only by professional investors, professional financial advisers and, at their exclusive discretion, their clients. It is not to be generally distributed to the public.
The unorthodox economic policies followed by Erdogan after the failed coup in 2016, alongside the deterioration in diplomatic relations with the EU and US, triggered the currency crisis - which we had predicted last summer and which in our view is not over yet.
Our biggest concern then and now remains the lack of central bank independence; we are worried that the central bank may be pressured to cut rates despite the stubbornly high inflation. Furthermore, the latest developments with Ankara edging towards the Russian S-400 air defence system does not bode well with the US, potentially reigniting tensions again.
A politically stable and economically viable Turkey is of paramount importance not only for the region, which has significant and well-known schisms, but also for the stability of the eurozone. The country could offer very attractive business opportunities for fresh money to be put to work, but it would require the commitment of orthodox economic policies and central bank credibility; both of which are lacking for now. The questions on democracy are new.
What do you prefer – aisle or window seat?
Middle. So, I can take over both armrests and open my newspaper wide …
What’s your secret spot for a holiday in Greece?
It has to be Eretria in Evia, one of the Ancient Greek cities which sent ships to the Trojan War and also fought alongside
Опубликовано: 24 июня 2019
Просмотров: 135
Рубрики: Пресс-релизы, Гостиничный бизнес, Гостиничные новости, Интервью
Регионы: Греция
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